Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk

            
 
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Please note:

This case study was compiled from generalized experience of the authors, and is intended to be used as a basis for class discussion. It is not intended to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a management situation. Nor is it a primary information source.



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Case Details:

Price:

Case Code : PROM011 For delivery in electronic format: Rs. 100;
For delivery through courier (within India): Rs. 100 + Rs. 25 for Shipping & Handling Charges

Themes

Quantitative Methods / Research Methods /Operations Research
Case Length : 02 Pages
Period : -
Pub Date : 2011
Teaching Note : Available
Organization : -
Industry : Information Technology
Countries : India

Abstract:

This is a fictitious case which deals with the subject of rational decision making based on factual as well as stochastic data. In this case, the protagonist had to face a couple of decision making dilemmas. His company has developed a new software which was scheduled for launch. The dilemma was whether to launch the product directly or to first test it commercially and then launch it. Again, if the software was to be launched, should it be launched in a single script or in multi-script? And if launched in single script, should it be expanded to multi-script at a later stage? All these situations were associated with their respective costs and payoffs, and some of them were attached with a probability of occurrence. Thus, this was a case of decision

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making under uncertainty and risk. This case is meant for MBA/MS students as a part of the Quantitative Methods/Research methods/Operation research curriculum.

Issues:

Understand the issues and challenges of rational decision making.
Analyze the given alternatives based on their payoffs.
Appreciate the importance of information which can be both factual as well as stochastic.
Study the possible states of nature and courses of action.
Understand how to choose the best alternative under certainty, uncertainty, risk, and conflict.
Debate on the various possible consequences based on the tradeoffs between costs and returns.
Discuss concepts such as formation of decision trees, calculation of expected monetary values, etc.

Contents:

  Page No.
Overview of Infrastructure Sector In India 1

Keywords:

Quantitative Methods, Operation Research, Research Methods, Rational decision making, Decision making under certainty, Decision making under uncertainty, Decision under risk, Decision tree, Payoffs, Calculation of expected monetary values

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