Interest Rate Changes and Duration Management
| Case Code: FINC177
Case Length: 13 Pages
Pub Date: 2021
Teaching Note: Available
| Price: Rs.400
Industry: Wealth Management
Themes: Portfolio Management, Fund Management, Risk Management, Investment Decisions
Abstract Case Intro 1 Case Intro 2 Excerpts
Central banks around the world regularly change the benchmark policy rates not only to target inflationary spikes but also to ensure strong economic growth. But these changes in the benchmark rates effect the bond markets and the performance of the bonds as the bond yields and bond prices changing. This poses a challenge to the bond fund manager who regularly has to reshuffle the portfolio in order to achieve the goals of the fund and achieve better performance. The case discusses the various factors which influences the central bank’s decision to change the benchmark policy rates. The relationship between interest rates and bond prices and how the performance of bond funds is related to changing interest rate scenarios is brought out. The case also emphasises on how bond fund managers change duration of fund portfolios in anticipation of changes in interest rates in order to maximize the return on investment of the investors.
The case is structured to achieve the following teaching objectives:
- To discuss the various global and domestic factors that influence India’s central bank, Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision on policy rates and resultant effect on bond yields.
- To understand the relationship between bond prices and interest rates (yields) and also understand which bond yield measure is practically used and its limitations.
- To discuss the difference between bonds maturity and its duration, also the various ways of understanding duration and to emphasize on how duration serves as measure of interest rate sensitivity.
- To discuss how duration matching rather than maturity matching is more important to ensure the investment value is immunized to interest rate fluctuations.
- To discuss how the concept of duration is applied by the fund managers in anticipation of interest rate changes to rebalance their bond portfolios so as to enhance yields and consequences of failure to predict interest rate movements with reasonable accuracy.
Changing Interest Rate and Bond Market Performance in India
March 2010-October 2011 (Increasing Interest Rate Scenario)
April 2012-May 2013 (Decreasing Interest Rate Scenario)
September 2013–January 2014 (Increasing Interest Rate Scenario)
January 2015–August 2017 (Decreasing Interest Rate Scenario)
June 2018–August 2018 (Increasing Interest Rate Scenario)
February 2019–May2020 (Decreasing Interest Rate Scenario)
Duration; Duration Management; Wealth Management; Capital Gains; Interest Rates; Bond Prices; REPO; Reverse REPO; CRR; SLR; Interest Rate Sensitivity; YTM; Maturity; RBI; Monetary Policy; Inflation; GDP; Mutual Fund; Gilt Fund; Dynamic Bond Fund Management; Bond Fund; Bond Valuation; Coupon Rate; Interest Rate Risk; Price Risk; Reinvestment Risk; Weighted Average Maturity.
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