Artificial Intelligence Failure at IBM `Watson for Oncology`
| Case Code: ITSY126 Case Length: 24 Pages Period: 2012-2021 Pub Date: 2022 Teaching Note: Available |
Price: Rs.400 Organization: International Business Machines Corporation Industry: Technology & Communications Countries: United States Themes: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Technology Development,Technology in Healthcare |
Abstract Case Intro 1 Case Intro 2 Excerpts
Excerpts
Building watson for jeopardy!
Having tasted success with DeepBlue, IBM started looking around for another audacious challenge. During this time, Paul Horn (Horn), the then director at IBM Research, planned to develop a machine that could win the Turing Test . According to Horn, “Beating a human in Jeopardy is a step in that direction – the questions are complicated and nuanced, and it takes a unique type of computer to have a chance of beating a human by answering those type of questions. I was running the research division and I was bugging people in the organisation, in particular [former EVP in IBM’s software group] Charles Lickel.” ..
Bringing Watson to Oncology
Having conquered the Jeopardy! show, IBM planned to evolve Watson into a commercial product. According to senior vice president at IBM Research and Cognitive Solutions John Kelly (Kelly), “I want to create something that I can take into every other retail industry, in the transportation industry, you name it. Any place where time is critical and you need to get advanced state-of-the-art information to the front decision-makers. Computers need to go from just being back-office calculating machines to improving the intelligence of people making decisions.” Kelly added, “I want to create a medical version of this. A Watson M.D., if you will. The problem right now is the procedures, the new procedures, the new medicines, the new capability is being generated faster than physicians can absorb on the front lines and it can be deployed.” ..
Tie-up with WellPoint
In 2011, US health insurer WellPoint Inc. (Wellpoint) and IBM announced their plans to commercially use Watson. In February 2012, Wellpoint and IBM worked with oncology experts at Los Angeles-based cancer treatment center Cedars-Sinai Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute for educating Watson as a physician’s assistant..
Marketing watson or overhype?
While Watson’s use in cancer care was still in its development stage, in 2013, IBM released an article stating MD Anderson “is using the IBM Watson cognitive computing system for its mission to eradicate cancer.” However, medical researchers opined that the system had a long way to go to be used in patient care..
Setting up Watson Health
While Watson’s use in cancer care was still in its development stage, in 2013, IBM released an article stating MD Anderson “is using the IBM Watson cognitive computing system for its mission to eradicate cancer.” However, medical researchers opined that the system had a long way to go to be used in patient care..
Appreciation for Watson
Some medical researchers appreciated IBM for developing Watson as they felt such AI software was needed in healthcare considering the increasing complexity in the field of oncology. According to MSK, around 20% of the knowledge used by human doctors during diagnosis and giving treatment recommendations to patients relied on trial-based evidence. The cancer center pointed out that it would take nearly 160 hours of reading a week to keep doctors updated about the new medical knowledge that was being published. MSK stated that Watson’s ability to absorb huge amounts of information faster than any human could fix this issue in the present healthcare model..
AI Failure
One of the initial challenges that revealed the failure of AI in IBM’s Watson software was when an audit was carried out by the University of Texas in February 2017. The audit revealed that MD Anderson faced huge challenges with its OEA software due to delays, mismanagement, and overspending. According to Charlie Schmidt, writer for the Journal of the NCI, “A university audit of the project exposed many procurement problems, cost overruns, and delays. Although the audit took no position on Watson’s scientific basis or functional capabilities, it did describe challenges with assimilating Watson into the hospital setting..
IBM’s Response
In November 2018, Kelly responded to the STAT reports and said, “It is true, as the article reports, that we at IBM have placed a big bet on healthcare. We have done this for two reasons: 1) Most importantly, we know that AI can make a big difference in solving medical challenges and supporting the work of the healthcare industry, and 2) We see an enormous business opportunity in this area as the adoption of AI increases. To suggest there has been no patient benefit is to ignore both what we know The Wall Street Journal was told by a number of physicians around the world and these institutions' own public comments – which we believe speak for themselves.”..
The Other View
According to Peter Greulich (Greulich), a retired IBM manager, “IBM ought to quit trying to cure cancer. They turned the marketing engine loose without controlling how to build and construct a product.” Greulich suggested IBM invest more money in Watson and hire more people in a bid to make it successful. He pointed out that in the 1960s, IBM had spent about 11.5 times its annual earnings on developing its mainframe computer and to make an equivalent investment in Watson, the technology giant would have to spend US$137 billion..
A long way to go for AI?
While Watson was being considered a useful tool in oncology by some hospitals, others had either not renewed or had cancelled their contracts with IBM for its Watson AI software. In June 2019, South Korea-based hospitals Pusan National University Hospital and Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center said they would not renew their contracts with IBM for Watson. Another South Korea-based hospital Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital (CNUHH) was also not enthusiastic about extending its contract with IBM for Watson..
Exhibits
Exhibit I: IBM’s Five-year Financial Summary
Exhibit II: Revenue by Segment
Exhibit III:
Deep QA Architecture
Exhibit IV: Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Market (2019)
Exhibit V:
Top AI Failures
Exhibit VI: Some of the Leading Artificial Intelligence Companies in Healthcare
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